Chapter 1: Understanding the 1.5°C Goal

Recent findings reported by NPR suggest that we might hit the 1.5°C threshold for global warming in the next decade or so. The 2015 Paris Agreement aimed to limit temperature rises to well below 2°C, ideally to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. While researchers acknowledge the theoretical feasibility of reaching these targets, they caution that practical implementation remains unlikely, and we may soon surpass our initial limits.

The divide between what is theoretically possible and what is probable is influenced heavily by human behavior. Factors such as wealth, power, and comfort significantly shape our actions. The scientific consensus is clear: we must reduce fossil fuel emissions. However, the real challenge lies in altering human behavior. Making sacrifices related to wealth and comfort transforms climate change from an abstract issue into a personal one.

A November 2021 poll conducted by the Washington Post and ABC News revealed that 67% of Americans consider climate change a serious problem, a figure that has remained constant since 2014. While 95% of Democrats recognize the seriousness of climate change, only 39% of Republicans share this view. Interestingly, concern among Democrats increased by 10% from 2014 to 2021, while Republican concern decreased by 10%.

In another survey by Pew, 80% of Americans acknowledged that human activities have significantly impacted climate change, yet only about half believed they should make personal sacrifices to address it. This disconnect between acknowledging the problem and committing to personal change poses a significant barrier. Both corporations and individuals often hesitate to make the necessary sacrifices.

Acceleration of Global Warming Between Large El Niño's now 0.49C per decade: James Hansen's Latest - YouTube

This video discusses the acceleration of global warming and its implications, highlighting the urgent need for collective action to limit temperature rise.

Chapter 2: The Role of Self-Preservation

Without substantial commitments from nations worldwide, achieving the goals outlined in the Paris Agreement seems improbable. Corporations, driven by the need to generate wealth for shareholders, are unlikely to be the catalysts for change. Historical trends show that wealth correlates with power, and sacrificing either is a significant hurdle.

Self-preservation is deeply ingrained in both individuals and corporations. While it might be easy to argue that limiting global warming is a matter of self-preservation, the reality is nuanced. For a fifteen-year-old, the answer is likely affirmative. However, for retirees, the urgency diminishes since they may not live to experience the worst impacts of climate change.

The distinction between self-preservation and species preservation is crucial; our instincts prioritize immediate survival over long-term considerations. Human evolution has geared us towards focusing on short-term survival, which complicates our ability to think decades into the future.

Global Warming in the Pipeline: What the Science Says - YouTube

This video examines the scientific consensus on global warming and the urgent actions needed to mitigate its impacts.

Chapter 3: The Credibility of Commitments

Ideally, the Paris Climate Agreement should have alleviated the direct burden of combating climate change from individuals and corporations. It was intended as a pact among sovereign nations, relying on their pledges to reduce emissions. However, without an enforcement mechanism, the credibility of these promises becomes questionable.

According to a 2022 paper by the Brookings Institution, around 70% of global emissions originate from countries that have made long-term commitments to reach net-zero emissions, typically by 2050. Yet, these non-binding pledges can only succeed if they are genuine. In international diplomacy, credibility becomes the essential currency, especially when compliance cannot be enforced.

The theoretical potential for meeting the 1.5°C goal hinges on nations honoring their commitments. Ultimately, success is dictated by political will rather than scientific capability. Historical examples, such as the USA's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement during the Trump administration, illustrate the vulnerabilities in this approach.

Chapter 4: The Path Forward

While the Paris Climate Agreement represented an ambitious vision, almost all nations have fallen short of their commitments eight years later. The knowledge required for climate change mitigation is readily available, yet the costs associated with implementation remain high, and society is reluctant to bear this burden.

Despite the shortfall in commitments, there have been some positive developments. Four of the ten largest global emitters—namely the United States, Russia, Japan, and Germany—managed to reduce carbon emissions between 2010 and 2020. However, the largest polluters, China and the USA, exhibit mixed results, with the USA achieving a 16% reduction in emissions, while China experienced a 25% increase.

Although COVID-19 induced industrial slowdowns led to a temporary dip in global CO2 emissions, the trend reversed in 2021. This demonstrates the limited progress made since the Paris Agreement was signed, although there are signs of hope in the stabilization of emissions.

As aspirations to limit temperature rise to 2°C wane, the current focus appears to be on possibly capping the increase at 3°C. Projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicate a likely scenario of a 3°C rise over the next 80 years, which, while not ideal, is better than the more severe consequences associated with a 5°C increase.

To keep temperature rises below 3°C, nations must proactively combat fossil fuel emissions. However, this requires a strong foundation of social activism, which is currently lacking. If you live in a democratic country, participating in the electoral process is crucial to ensure your voice is heard.

Chapter 5: A Glimmer of Hope

There remains a possibility for federal-level engagement. The Biden administration has proposed an ambitious plan for the USA to achieve carbon-free electricity by 2035. While challenges abound, economists highlight the potential for job creation and the increasing competitiveness of clean energy against fossil fuels in various regions.

Despite its lofty goals, the Paris Agreement is unlikely to achieve zero fossil fuel emissions by 2050. However, this does not signify a hopeless situation. The agreement's top-down approach is being complemented by grassroots efforts, with states and local governments implementing policies that can yield meaningful change. As climate impacts become increasingly visible, even traditionally resistant groups are beginning to recognize the importance of addressing climate change.